Power Shift Analysen

At first glance, not much seems to have changed concerning Brazil´s power during the last years: South America´s biggest country shows a negative Power Shift Rate of -0.02 percent for the period of 2015 to 2017, the same figure as during the phase of 2013 to 2015. Brazil thus continues its sluggish power development.

After a long phase of power gains for Saudi Arabia, the desert powerhouse has to endure a negative Power Shift Rate of -0.14 percent for the period of 2015/2017. This is the first time since the period of 2007/09 that Saudi Arabia receives a negative Power Shift Rate.

In a global view, Australia is one of the biggest power losers from 2005 to 2017. In total, it has lost 22 percent of its Power Score over the years. Having said that, Down Under presents a positive change for the recent 2015/17 period increasing its Power Score by 4.2 percent up from 1.60 to 1.66.

South Africa seems to continue its long-term trend at the Bonn Power Shift Monitor. Its Power Shift Rate, expressing its development of relative power compared to the other G20 countries, nearly stagnated for most of the last decade. Meanwhile, the Rainbow Nation´s absolute country rate increased steadily.

Argentina and South Africa are the smallest powers among the G20 member states. Between 2006 and 2013, South Africa has been ahead of Argentina in terms of Power Scores. Since then, the countries have been on a similar power level, yet Argentina has fallen behind its competitor in 2017.

All is not well for Canada in the latest BPSM observation period. This can be seen most prominently in its status as the third biggest power loser based on its own Power Score (-4.3 percent), only faring better than the United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia. Moreover, Canada has lost a rank within the G20 for the first time since the 2009/11 period.

After China, India is the second biggest winner in the period from 2005 to 2017 with a Power Shift Rate of 1.13 percent. Starting in 7th place and a Power Score (PS) of 3.29 in 2005, India has surpassed France and ranked place six among the G20 states in 2015 with a PS of 3.99.

The Bonn Power Shift Monitor records mixed results for the Latin American country: While it boasts a remarkable cross-category growth of 11.75 percent in absolute terms, its PSR of 0.03 between 2015 and 2017 is only just positive. A detailed look at Mexico’s power composition across the evaluated indicators offers insights into what could possibly be a new trajectory for the federation.

Over the observation period of 2005 to 2017, France has seen a considerable decline in its Power Score, having lost international shares in each BPSM category and dropping a rank among the G20 members. Since 2015, however, France has been able to defend its 7th rank according to the 2019 BPSM update.

While Russia achieved significant international power gains during the decade of 2005/15, Mos-cow experienced relative losses compared to G20 countries for the latest period of 2015/17, with a Power Shift Rate of -0.06 percent. In comparison, Russia has thus lost 2.41 percent of its power since 2015.