Power Ranking
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As demonstrated in previous editions of the Bonn Power Shift Monitor, the United States of America (USA) remains the most powerful G19 country, with a Power Score of 18.50 in 2023. Notably this constitutes only a +0.02 shift from 2019’s Power Score of 18.48. As a result, the US absolute power stagnates, yet still consolidates the nation as a global leader. Steadily closing in on the United States, China has experienced a Power Score increase of +0.52 from 12.78 to 13.30. With this, China is the overall winner regarding power growth of the G19 countries from 2019 to 2023. Nonetheless, its Power Score fell slightly from 13.48 (2021) to 13.30 (2023). Thus, while the gap between the USA and China continues to narrow for the overall observation period, the future of this global power race is still undecided.After China as the unchallenged frontrunner in terms of absolute Power Score gains, Australia takes second place with a power increase of +0.18, closely followed by India with a power growth of +0.15. The two countries showing the largest power losses are the United Kingdom with a negative Power Shift Rate (PSR) of -0.27, and at a great distance Japan, with a PSR of -0.72. Overall, the collective power of the G19 states has declined, with a G19 Power Score of 73.52 in 2019 and 73.30 in 2023. This slight decrease points towards power growth taking place in emerging states outside the G19, possibly leading toward increased global equalization of power, apart from the USA and China as the global frontrunners.
In terms of power share increase in percentage per country, Australia has made the largest strides (+9.52 %). Canada comes in second place with an increase of +6.06 % and thirdly India with 4.92 %. China comes in fourth place (+4.09 %). On the other end of the scale, Japan records a loss of -14.63 % of its power between 2019 to 2023. This drastic change can be attributed to its current economic recession and weak exchange rates of the Yen. The penultimate place is taken by South Africa, loosing -19.24 % of its power. After the nation’s GDP mostly recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, it sharply declined after 2022, which also affected its military spending. Turning to the next BPSM power metric, the Rate of Country Change (CC) describes the relative cumulative difference of each nation’s power indicators between 2019 and 2023. This rate thus reflects the individual development of the country figures over time. Due to the global power race, a nation with a positive CC might still show a negative PSR, if its absolute power increase is smaller than that of other nations. The three top nations according to the CC are Saudi Arabia (+17.45) in first place; India (+16.98) in second place; and Canada (+15.88) in third place. Japan (-1.26), Argentina (-3.02), and South Africa (-10.90), with a drastically negative CC, are falling behind. These countries all recorded declines in various categories of hard power. Japan’s decline can be explained by the negative development in the categories of GDP, Fortune 500 companies and total reserves. Argentina shows a drop in reserves and military expenditure. Similarly, South Africa experienced a significant decline in military spending, as well as GDP. Argentina and South Africa once again remain the bottom performers in the BPSM. Their Power Score has dropped by -0.02 and -0.09 points respectively since 2019. While Argentina seems to stagnate with a slightly negative trend, South Africa finds itself on a downwards trajectory. One factor that emphasizes their situation is that neither country hosts any Fortune 500 companies.
Table of Contents
Redistribution of Power
At the top, the United States (PS 18.50) and China (13.30) stand far above the rest, with a significant gap of over 8 points to the thirdranked UK (4.96). At the bottom, Argentina (0.44) and South Africa (0.37) are similarly isolated, trailing the 17th-ranked Indonesia (0.89) by a considerable margin. This stratification has become more pronounced since 2019, particularly through China’s power Score growth (+4.09 %) and South Africa’s decline (-19.24 %). Power Scores among the midfield fluctuate slightly, such as Japan falling from 4.95 to 4.23 (-14.63 %), marking the most significant decline among the established powers and falling from 4th place to 5th, while other midfield countries like India showed gains (+4.92%).
Regional Developments
Three major geographic power centers become apparent within the G19: First, the North American center under the dominance of the United States; second, the EU as a composite power center of Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom; and third, an Asian power center with China as the primary regional power, along with the growing powers Indonesia and India. All states that make up the European power center (United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy) exhibit a relative decline, with the UK losing the most power with a PSR of -0.27. Therefore, a general decrease of European power is evident. Notwithstanding this negative development, all these states remain in the ranks of the ten most powerful G19 member states in 2023. Regarding Germany, the drop in its Power Score – from 4.15 in 2019 to 4.14 in 2023 – is quite marginal, and despite the manifest stagnation with a slight downwards trend concerning GDP and Exports, the country ranks third in these economic categories, behind the USA and China.
Among the states of the third power center, China has had the biggest positive shift, remaining the unchallenged dominant power in the region. In distant second place within Asia, India’s Power Score rose to 3.24, up from 3.09 in 2019. A striking development is the -0.72 fall in Japan’s Power Score. Especially the shrunken GDP shows the troubled state of the economy, which allowed Germany to ascend to the former Japanese position as the third largest economy in the world. In South America, Brazil and Argentina are experiencing a slight decline, with Power Scores that have sunken -0.03 and -0.02 points respectively from 2019 to 2023. However, despite Brazil’s declining performance between 2019 and 2022, it shows an upward trend in 2023. Despite Argentina’s poor performance, it only ranks second to last among the countries evaluated.
A Close-Up of BPSM Indicators
For the second time in the publication’s history, the BPSM included the following additional power indicators: Control of chokepoints, Total reserves and UNESCO World Heritage Sites. Starting with the chokepoint indicator, a weighted score represents the ability of a nation to potentially control important maritime chokepoints around the globe. The USA remains in a leading position with a score of 22, representing a potential control of all monitored chokepoints. France comes in second place with a score of 15, while the United Kingdom is in third position with 12 points. Just behind Italy with 10 points, China sits at fifth place with a score of 9, closely followed by Russia and Turkey with 8 points each. Germany holds a score of 2, equal to Japan, South Korea, and Mexico. The last place is shared between Argentina, Canada, and South Africa, who scored only 1 point each. Between 2019 and 2023, this indicator remained constant, as maritime capacities did not significantly change among the monitored countries. Since chokepoint control is closely related to geographical proximity, it is expected that this indicator remains rather stable, barring significant maritime power changes. The next new indicator refers to the total reserves of a country. Total reserves comprise holdings of monetary gold, special drawing rights, reserves of IMF members held by the IMF, and holdings of foreign exchange under the control of monetary authorities. This indicator is a measure for a state’s stability and contributes to its hard power.
There was a global upward trend of total reserves between 2019 and 2023. Despite the G19 countries having collectively increased their total reserves, their total global share has fallen. This indicates an increase in reserves outside of the G19 countries. Only four of the G19 states have seen a decrease in total reserves, these being Argentina, Brazil, Japan and Saudi Arabia. In addition to these, four other countries suffered a loss in their global share regarding reserves, these being China, Great Britain, Korea and Russia. The most substantial increase in reserves – both in total and relatively – has been made by the US. The European G19 countries only make up around 10 % of global reserves shares, having increased their shares by 0.66 points since 2019. Meanwhile, Asia holds about 42 % of global reserves, the brunt of this being accounted for by China (22 %). However, this constitutes a collective decrease of 2.59 points. The countries that are performing the poorest in terms of their respective country shares are Argentina (0.15 %), Australia (0.40 %) and South Africa (0.40 %).
For the second time, the BPSM have examined the UNESCO World Heritages as an indicator. As these sites contain cultural and natural heritage throughout the world considered to be of exceptional value to humanity, they serve as a measure of a nation’s soft power. The number of World Heritage Sites in a country is not only an indicator of the country’s attractiveness as a place to live for foreigners and for tourism, but also of its influence at the level of world cultural policy. The global number of World Heritage Sides has increased from 1,121 in 2019 to 1,199 in 2023. Out of those, the G19 holds 552 World Heritage Sites, which is an increase of 40 since 2019. The countries with the most Heritage Sites as of 2023 are Italy (59), China (57), and tied in third place, France and Germany (52 Heritage Sites respectively). The latter both gained six World Heritage Sites since 2019, the largest addition in this ranking. The bottom countries continue to be South Africa (10), Indonesia (10) and Saudi Arabia (7). These last two countries managed to add one and two World Heritage Sites respectively. Without change in this category were South Africa and Australia. Generally, a convergence of World Heritage Sites among the G19 states can be seen in Asia and Europe.
The world’s top universities are monitored by the QS World university ranking. Leading universities are central hubs of scientific knowledge production and a country’s academic outreach on a global level. Depending on their research, universities contribute to the hard, soft, and structural power of their home countries in various ways. As of 2023, the G19 countries are home to 148 of the 200 top global universities. With a total of 93 among them, the largest number of these universities are found in English speaking countries. Interestingly, both the United States and the United Kingdom have each lost three universities from the global ranking. With Canada gaining one, and Australia gaining five top universities, these four English speaking nations have overall risen 3 places in the global ranking. The European G19 countries accounted for 51 universities in the 2019 ranking, but now only 47. The United Kingdom, Germany and Italy have seen losses in this category. The Asian G19 countries managed an increase from 27 to 32 in the highest ranked universities globally. Japan (9) remains the strongest Asian country in that area, with Korea and China (8 universities respectively) closely following suit. Meanwhile, Indonesia and Turkey continue to fall short in this regard, as emphasized by them presenting not one globally renowned university. The two South American countries Argentina and Brazil continue to each only hold one university in the global ranking. The world’s largest companies, as ranked by revenue in the Global Fortune 500, shape the economic structures around the globe. These companies represent engines driving globalization, innovation, production, and communication. Collectively, the G19 countries succeeded in adding +11 companies in the Global Fortune 500, now accounting for 446 of these companies. A striking development concerns the USA and China. With the USA gaining 10 companies in 2023 alone, both have increased the number of their Global Fortune 500 companies by exactly +16. This puts them in close competition as China holds 135 of these companies, while 136 are based in the USA. Another dramatic development is Japan losing -11 of its fortune 500 companies, once more showcasing its economic downturn. Accounting for the second and third highest loss are France (-7) and Australia (-5). Both South Africa and Argentina remain at the bottom without a single company among the Global Fortune 500 ranking. The GDPs – the value of all final goods and services produced within a country each year provided in a standard measure by purchasing power parity (PPP) – of the G19 countries collectively have slightly increased since 2019. The G19 now account for roughly 78 % of the global GDP, increasing their economic weight marginally. The leading countries in this category remain the USA and – following at a distance – China. Respectively, they account for 26 % and 17 % of global GDP. Among the G19, they also recorded the biggest relative GDP increase during the observation period. Only 10 of the 19 evaluated countries increased their relative market sharein this period, half of them by a negligible percentage. Japan has seen a plummeting GDP, losing -1.82 points of its previous market share. Other nations experiencing a significant relative drop are South Korea (-0.25) and France (-0.23). Overall, the global GDP share of the European countries in this ranking shows a marginal decrease, due to a mostly small relative drop of all European G19 states.
Exports of goods and services record the entirety of all tangible and intangible commodities delivered across a state’s border. This indicator illustrates the integration of a state’s economy into global markets as well as its competitiveness. Worldwide, there has been a general growth of exports of goods and services. The G19 countries have also seen a total increase of exports while their relative global share has slightly decreased by -0.84. All individual G19 countries increased their total exports, apart from Russia, whose economy was affected by EU economic sanctions. The two biggest economies, China and the USA, now respectively account for 11 % and 10 % of global exports. The upwards trajectory of China is likely to put further distance between them and the rest of the G19. Regionally, Asia remains at the forefront of the G19 export market, followed by Europe. However, several European countries, Germany among them, saw their global share of exports decline in this observation period. Looking more closely at global military expenditure, we can see a rough correspondence with the Power Score of the nations observed. Leading in the category of military expenses are the USA and China, with the former accounting for an astonishing 37 % of global military spending, and the latter accounting for roughly 13 %. It should be noted that while China’s global share remained constant, the USA lost about 3 % from 2019 to 2023. Less powerful countries like Argentina and South Africa rank at the very bottom of military expenditure, with 0.12 % global share respectively. As stated in the introduction, Russia has made the biggest strides in military expenditures, both in total and relatively, which can be attributed to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine since February 2022. Therefore, its military expenditure share has gone up by 1.63 %, now accounting for 5 % globally. Looking at the Internal Change Rate, the states exhibiting a significant increase – apart from the frontrunner Russia – are Japan, Germany, Italy and China. In Japan’s case, this increased funding has come despite the current economic crisis the country is facing. These developments reflect the perceived security threats, as well as – in China’s case especially – the military ambitions of these nations. Meanwhile the only nations with decreased military spending are Argentina, South Africa, Brazil and finally Turkey. Despite a total increase of military spending of the G19 countries collectively, they have dropped to 80 % of global military expenditure share, a 3 % decrease compared to 2019. Consequently, military expenditures have risen in non-G19 countries. With an increasingly hostile international environment, higher military spending across the board could be expected.