Power Shift Analysen

Between 2019 and 2023, China showed the highest Power Shift Rate (PSR) of 0.52 among all observed nations. With a Power Score of 16.93 in 2019, China’s highest Power Score for the observation period was 17.63 in 2021, after which it marginally fell to 17.45 in 2023. This slight up-and-down resulted in a total PSR of 0.52. While China managed to further narrow the gap towards the USA at the top with a Power Score of 28.65 in 2023, the decrease between 2021 and 2023 shows the beginnings of slowed overall growth momentum. The power peak in 2021 is reflected in China’s GDP, whose Country
Share (CS) increased from 16.24 in 2019 to 18.27 in 2021, before declining towards a CS of 16.88 in 2023. For comparison, the GDP CS of the USA decreased slightly from 24.47 in 2019 to 24.19 in 2021, before rising again to its peak of 25.95 in 2023. This shows that China’s overall economy remained comparatively healthy through the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, yet the nation was not able to consolidate this into a lasting comparable benefit.
Regarding the other indicators, China’s biggest increase in score is in the indicator of Fortune 500 companies. Their number was increased from 119 (2019) to 135 (2023), surpassing the USA between 2020 and 2022. However, China currently sits just at rank 2, since the USA raised their number of Fortune 500 companies from 124 (2022) to 136 (2023). Turning to the indicator of military spending, China’s CS only increased slightly, from 12.55 in 2019 to 12.93 in 2023. While the USA is far ahead of China, its CS decreased from 40.55 (2019) to 36.77 (2023). Notwithstanding the large gap between the two, they are still by far the leaders in this indicator, with third place falling to Russia, whose war-time spending increased to a CS of 5.28.
Turning to the new indicators introduced in the last Power Score Monitor, China comes in second place regarding UNESCO World Heritage sites, with a count of 57 sites in 2023. While the nation was tied with Italy at 55 sites in 2019, Italy increased this number to 59 in 2023, thereby overtaking China in this metric.

With regards to the figures of total reserves, China still holds by far the highest score than other countries, with a CS of 21.89 in 2023. For comparison, runner-up Japan holds a CS of 8.20 for this indicator, and the United States sits in third place with a CS of 4.90. Nonetheless, China’s total reserves decreased during the observation period – in 2019 the nation used to hold a CS of 23.03. Finally, taking a look at the chokepoint indicator, China scores a CS of 7.69, falling into fifth place of all nations monitored. In comparison, its major power competitor the USA holds the highest score of 18.8, followed by France with a CS of 12.82. This score nonetheless reflects China’s capacity to control strategically relevant chokepoints in Southeast Asia and the Arabian Sea, such as the straits of Malacca or of Bab-al Mandab. This is visualized in the graphic below, where all chokepoints potentially controlled by China are depicted in pink. All other observed chokepoints are colored in grey. In summary, although its GDP and UNESCO World Heritage scores wavered, China shows the highest comparative power increase of all nations monitored.

Read the country report as a PDF: BPSM 2024 China