Power Shift Analysen

Find out more about the power shifts and the most striking trends among the G20 states between 2016-2020.

The United States of America remains the most powerful country of the G19 in 2020. Although it has continued losing international power, its downward curve flattened further with a Power Score falling slightly from 17.65 to 17.19 between 2016 and 2020. This represents a smaller loss of power compared to the 2011/2015-phase with a Power Shift Rate of -1,31. However, in 2020 the US ranked at the bottom of the G19 with a Power Shift Rate of -0.46.

Between 2016 and 2020, China’s Power Share continued to grow, and Beijing managed to tighten the gap to the US. Furthermore, China was able to increase its Power Score from 12.56 to 13.32. However, its Power Shift Rate decreased compared to the previous period from 1.72 to 0.76. The gap between China and the US is narrowing slowly but steadily - China will have overtaken the US in the accumulated Power Score by 2035.

Throughout the observed episode, the United Kingdom occupied the penultimate place of the G19 in terms of its Power Shift, showing a Power Shift Rate of -0.30. With regard to the overall power ranking, the UK remains in 3rd place, even though it substantially lost ground and Japan and France were able to catch up significantly.

Over the entire period observed, Japan remains in 4th place of the BPSM-Power-Ranking in terms of overall Power Score. However, a loss of overall power (4.86 in 2016; 4.80 in 2020) sets back Japan on 13th rank looking at the Power Shift Rate (-0.05) and on 11th rank considering the overall Percentage Power development.

Throughout the period observed, France remained Europe’s second most powerful country, although the two strongest European countries, to name Germany and France, simultaneously were the biggest losers on the continent. Moreover, Italy and Germany outperformed France in the period mentioned, gaining more global power.

Generally, an increase in European power can be noted, but some states gained more than others. Germany is one of the power winners of the past period and managed to maintain its 6th place in the overall ranking. Between 2016 and 2020, Germany was able to increase its Power Score from 3.96 to 4.03. It further showed an increase in Market Share for four out of seven indicators.

With a Power Shift of 6.62%, India recorded most power gains from 2016 to 2020, further increasing th power shares in the Asian region. Moreover, taking the Power Shift Rate into consideration, India has equally recorded gains with a growth of 0.23. With a rate of Country Change of 20.85%, India in total claims the third-highest Country Change following Italy (30.15%) and Mexico (29.56%).

As the biggest country by territory in the world and remembering its former superpower status, the Russian Federation set its own aspirations high – not to say global. Based on a period of remarkably huge growth in the 2000s, Russia is currently lagging behind its ambitions due to economic hardship and diplomatic tensions.

Considering the period from 2016 to 2020, Italy claimed the highest rate of Country Change with 30.15%. Furthermore, the “Boot” registered a positive Power Shift Rate of 0.02 (5th of the G19) turning out to be the 9th most powerful country of the G19, ranking 4th (and therefore least powerful) among the European states.