Power Shift Analysen

In total numbers, Japan shows the most drastic Power Score (PS) loss of all nations monitored. Its PS decreased by -0.72 from 5.88 to 5.15. As a result, Japan falls from fourth to fifth place, overtaken by France with a PS of 4.39. Japan’s diminished power is reflected in a variety of indicators, most strikingly regarding its economy. Its GDP indicator fell from a Country Share (CS) of 5.82 (2019) to 4.00 (2023), by far the largest decrease among the monitored G19.

Over the period of observation, Germany’s Power Score stagnated, decreasing marginally by 0.01 from 4.15 in 2019 to 4.14 in 2023. Between these years, the nation’s overall Power Score fluctuated between 4.19 in 2020, and 4.04 in 2022. Overall, this places Germany in sixth place among the G19.

By territory the largest country in the world, Russia aims to return to its former superpower status but is still struggling to achieve these ambitions. Two and a half years after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the nation still finds itself engaged in drawn-out war with its smaller neighbor. However, Russia seems to have recovered from the economic shock of far-reaching Western sanctions and has strengthened ties with alternative business partners. In total, Russia was able to increase its Power Score slightly from 2.77 in 2019 to 2.88 in 2023.

Between 2019 and 2023, China showed the highest Power Shift Rate (PSR) of 0.52 among all observed nations. With a Power Score of 16.93 in 2019, China’s highest Power Score for the observation period was 17.63 in 2021, after which it marginally fell to 17.45 in 2023. This slight up-and-down resulted in a total PSR of 0.52. While China managed to further narrow the gap towards the USA at the top with a Power Score of 28.65 in 2023, the decrease between 2021 and 2023 shows the beginnings of slowed overall growth momentum.

The United States of America remains at the top of all monitored countries. Between 2019 and 2023, its Power Score fluctuated only marginally, varying between the lowest score of 18.21 in 2021, and the highest score of 18.5 in 2023. This stable power consolidation is represented in a Power Shift Rate of 0.02. Considering that China’s Power Score keeps increasing, the gap between the two competitors continues to shrink.

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Find out more about the power shifts and the most striking trends among the G20 states between 2016-2020.

The United States of America remains the most powerful country of the G19 in 2020. Although it has continued losing international power, its downward curve flattened further with a Power Score falling slightly from 17.65 to 17.19 between 2016 and 2020. This represents a smaller loss of power compared to the 2011/2015-phase with a Power Shift Rate of -1,31. However, in 2020 the US ranked at the bottom of the G19 with a Power Shift Rate of -0.46.

Between 2016 and 2020, China’s Power Share continued to grow, and Beijing managed to tighten the gap to the US. Furthermore, China was able to increase its Power Score from 12.56 to 13.32. However, its Power Shift Rate decreased compared to the previous period from 1.72 to 0.76. The gap between China and the US is narrowing slowly but steadily - China will have overtaken the US in the accumulated Power Score by 2035.

Throughout the observed episode, the United Kingdom occupied the penultimate place of the G19 in terms of its Power Shift, showing a Power Shift Rate of -0.30. With regard to the overall power ranking, the UK remains in 3rd place, even though it substantially lost ground and Japan and France were able to catch up significantly.