Power Shift Analysen

The United States of America remains at the top of all monitored countries. Between 2019 and 2023, its Power Score fluctuated only marginally, varying between the lowest score of 18.21 in 2021, and the highest score of 18.5 in 2023. This stable power consolidation is represented in a Power Shift Rate of 0.02. Considering that China’s Power Score keeps increasing, the gap between the two competitors continues to shrink.
Taking a look at the GDP Power Score, the USA consolidates its position in first place with a Country Share (CS) of 25.95. This shows an increase from a CS of 24.47 in 2019, extending its lead over China, whose GDP CS sits at 16.88 in 2023. Regarding the indicator of exports, the US score shows a decrease from 10.18 in 2019 to 9.05 in 2021, exemplifying the effect the COVID-19 pandemic had on its economy. However, US exports slowly recovered, sitting now at a CS of 9.8 in 2023. This puts the USA clearly behind China in this regard, which scored a CS of 11.28 in 2023. The indicator of Fortune 500 companies shows another close competition between the USA and China, where the USA improved its CS from 24 in 2019 to 27.2 in 2023, but its competitor China follows right behind, with a CS of 23.8 in 2019, and 27 in 2023. In this indicator, both countries remain at a considerable distance to the rest of the G19, as runner-up Japan in third place currently holds a CS of 8.2. Taking a look at total national reserves, the USA increased its Country Share from 3.70 (2019) to 4.90 (2023). This puts the nation in third place, behind Japan with a CS of 8.20 in 2023, and far behind China, which consolidates its position in first place, with a Country Share of 21.89.

The number of Top Universities in the USA decreased from 48 in 2019 to 45 in 2023, leading to a Country Share decrease from 24 to 22.5. Nonetheless, the USA remains at the top regarding this indicator, with runner-up UK sitting at a CS of 13 in 2023. The US military expenditure continues to be one of its main power sources, towering above all other nations with a CS of 36.77. Runner-up China scores a CS of 12.92, and in third place sits Russia, whose war-time military expenditure scores a comparatively low CS of 5.28. Notably, the CS regarding military expenditure of the US decreased during the observation period. In 2019, the USA still scored a CS of 40.55, rising to a CS of 40.96 in 2020, before starting its decrease towards its 2023 score of 36.77.
Finally, regarding the indicator of potential chokepoint control, the USA remains the most powerful actor monitored. It holds potential control of all monitored chokepoints, which are colored in pink on the graphic below. Other observed chokepoints without a potential US control would be colored in grey, which in this case is zero. In context of global power competition, the USA scores a current highest CS of 18.8 in this indicator. The next highest scoring countries regarding chokepoints are France (CS 12.8), and the United Kingdom (CS 10.25). Turning towards China, the US competitor scores only a CS of 7.7 in this indicator, falling into fifth place with considerable distance to the USA.

In sum, the USA remains the most powerful nation monitored, maintaining its dominance in structural and hard power through its significant lead in military spending and chokepoint control, while also holding a commanding position in GDP and top universities. Nonetheless, the gap between the USA and China continues to narrow, since the latter nation slowly grows its power share, while the US power stagnates at the top.

Read the country report as a PDF: BPSM 2024 USA