Power Shift Analysen

Over the period of observation, Germany’s Power Score stagnated, decreasing marginally by 0.01 from 4.15 in 2019 to 4.14 in 2023. Between these years, the nation’s overall Power Score fluctuated between 4.19 in 2020, and 4.04 in 2022. Overall, this places Germany in sixth place among the G19. Starting with economic indicators, Germany’s GDP remained stagnant, starting out with a Country Share (CS) of 4.42 in 2019 and ending with a CS of 4.23 in 2023. The lowest point for Germany’s GDP was seen in 2022 (CS 4.03). Therefore, the last year of observation provided a slight upwards trend. Nonetheless, Germany climbed one position in the G19 rankings, becoming the world’s third-largest economy in 2023, an improvement from its 2019 standing. This is due to Japan’s GDP CS decreasing from 5.8 in 2019 to 4.00 in 2023. Regarding Germany’s exports of goods and services, a similar overall decline can be noted. Starting out with a CS of 7.33 in 2019, this indicator’s score rose to a CS of 7.49 before declining to 6.60 in 2022. The following year brought a slight recovery to a CS of 6.76. This puts German 2023 exports still solidly in third place, behind China (CS 11.28) and the USA (CS 9.80), given that exports are one of the core tenets of Germany’s power, it would be concerning for the nation if this overall loss of export strength continues. Germany was able to increase its number of Fortune 500 companies from 28 (2019) to 30 (2023). Regarding military expenditure, Germany’s CS increased slightly from 2019 (CS 2.45) to 2023 (CS 2.56). Considering that its military expenditure in 2021 held a CS of 2.48, Olaf Scholz’ much-quoted
“Zeitenwende” at the start of 2022 shows a slight, albeit not historic, effect. Regarding total reserves, Germany was able to increase its CS from 1.60 (2019) to 2.05 (2023). A similarly positive trend can be seen in its amount of UNESCO World Heritage sites, which increased from 46 in 2019 to 52 in 2023. New additions include the Danubian Limes, a Roman-age fortification network, Jewish-Medieval Heritage sites in Erfurt, and an artist colony in Mathildenhöhe, Darmstadt. The only other nation with a such a strong increase in UNESCO World Heritage sites was France, which held 46 heritage sites in 2019, and 52 sites in 2023.

For the final soft power indicator, top ranking universities, Germany fell from third to fourth place. While the nation can now only count 11 top universities its own, runner-up Australia increased its number from 9 (2019) to 14 (2023), overtaking Germany. Finally turning towards potential chokepoint control, Germany could potentially control two geographically close chokepoints, the strait of Dover and the Kiel canal, the latter of which runs through the nation itself. Resulting in a CS of 1.71, Germany places last among European G19 countries, and 13th among all nations monitored, tied with Japan, South Korea, and Mexico. The graphic below depicts all monitored chokepoints potentially controllable by the nation in pink, all other observed chokepoints are colored in grey. All in all, this report paints a mixed picture for Germany’s power development. While the country was able to increase its total reserves, UNESCO World Heritage sites, and number of Fortune 500 companies, other indicators central for German power, like exports, have weakened. Additionally, an increase in military spending has so far been only slight. The stagnation of its Power Score could cast doubt on its future position in the global power race.

Read the country report as a PDF: BPSM 2024 Germany