Power Shift Analysen

By territory the largest country in the world, Russia aims to return to its former superpower status but is still struggling to achieve these ambitions. Two and a half years after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the nation still finds itself engaged in drawn-out war with its smaller neighbor. However, Russia seems to have recovered from the economic shock of far-reaching Western sanctions and has strengthened ties with alternative business partners. In total, Russia was able to increase its Power Score slightly from 2.77 in 2019 to 2.88 in 2023. This makes it the ninth strongest country monitored. Starting with a closer look at Russia’s economy, its GDP fluctuated slightly, which however totaled little overall change at the end of the observation period. Its GDP decreased from a Country Share (CS) of 1.93 (2019) to its lowest of 1.74 (2020), before rising to its peak of 2.24 in 2022. In 2023, it ultimately settled at 1.92, only 0.01 below its 2019 starting point. Russian exports however fell from a CS of 1.93 in 2019 to 1.5 in 2023, possibly showing effects of Western
sanctions. Similarly, out of 4 Russian Fortune 500 companies in 2019, only 3 remain in 2023. The largest power increase for Russia is observed in the indicator of military expenditure, rising from a CS of 3.65 in 2019 to 5.28 in 2023. Here, Russia now places third among all nations monitored, well ahead of runner-up India (CS 3.48), yet still far off second-place China (CS 12.9) and leader USA (CS 36.77). Nonetheless, Russian military spending needs to be placed in the context of an ongoing full-scale war. Any resources created will be allotted and used up much sooner than they would be for a nation not actively engaged in war. Increasing military expenditure is thus not as much a comparative power increase as a necessity for Russia, which now finds itself as a war-time economy.

Turning to the new indicators introduced last edition, Russia’s total reserves decreased slightly, from a CS of 3.97 (2019) to 3.79 (2023). As a result, the nation is overtaken by India in this regard, which increased its total reserve CS from 3.31 (2019) to 3.98 (2023). Taking a look at the new soft power indicator, Russia was able to increase its number of UNESCO World Heritage sites from 29 in 2019 to 31. New additions are Petroglyphs of Lake Onega and the White Sea, containing about 4.500 Neolithic period art carvings, and the Astronomical Observatories of Kazan Federal University. Regarding the chokepoint indicator, Russia Country Share of 6.84. Although declaring some losses, the Russian-Ukrainian war has, for now, not fundamentally altered the country’s naval capacities and ability to control geographically close chokepoints like the Bering Strait. This chokepoint close to the North Pole may gain increased relevance in the upcoming decades, as continued global warming is set to melt the ice of the Arctic Ocean, making it a more viable shipping and military transit route. The graphic below depicts all monitored chokepoints potentially controllable by Russia in pink, all other observed chokepoints are colored in grey.

All in all, Russia was able to adapt to the requirements of its continued military aggression against the Ukraine, and to slightly increase its overall Power Score despite Western sanctions. Nonetheless, the military and economic cost of war is high, and affecting Russia’s stance in today’s global power competition. At overall ninth place among the G19, Russia is currently a major, but not a top power player.

Read the country report as a PDF: BPSM 2024 Russia