Power Shift Analysen

In total numbers, Japan shows the most drastic Power Score (PS) loss of all nations monitored. Its PS decreased by -0.72 from 5.88 to 5.15. As a result, Japan falls from fourth to fifth place, overtaken by France with a PS of 4.39. Japan’s diminished power is reflected in a variety of indicators, most strikingly regarding its economy. Its GDP indicator fell from a Country Share (CS) of 5.82 (2019) to 4.00 (2023), by far the largest decrease among the monitored G19. This reflects not just a comparative decline, but also a loss in total numbers, as its GDP declined by about 905 billion USD between 2019 and 2023. As a consequence, Japan fell to fourth place among the G19 in the GDP indicator ranking, bringing Germany to third place. The decline of Japan’s GDP is in part attributed to the Yen’s weakness compared to the USD and a drop in domestic consumption. In line with this overall economic development, Japan additionally lost the most Fortune 500 companies among all monitored nations, reducing their number by 11 from 52 in 2019 to 41 in 2023. Regarding exports, a similar loss can be observed. Japan’s CS for this indicator reduced from 3.62 (2019) to 2.96 (2023). The nation dropped from fourth to sixth place regarding this indicator. Turning to total reserves, Japan’s CS decreased from 9.45 in 2019 to 8.21 in 2023. Despite this decline, the nation maintained a firm hold on second place, with the runner-up USA scoring a CS of 4.9 in 2023. China, whose total reserve CS decreased from 23.03 (2019) to 21.89 (2023), remains in the lead.

On the topic of military hard power, Japanese military spending spells good news for the country’s Power Score, as it does not decrease but instead shows a slight increase, from 2.08 in 2019 to2.17 in 2023. In fact, Japan’s military spending in constant 2022 USD increased from 41.899 billion in 2019 to 51.888 billion in 2023. Given its decrease in total GDP at the same time, this indicator reflects an intentional prioritization of military capacity building.
Regarding potential control of chokepoints, Japan remains at a CS of 1.71, coming in 13th place, shared with Mexico, Germany, and South Korea. This score reflects its ability to potentially control the immediately nearby Korea Strait and La Pérouse Strait. Japan currently does not have enough naval reach to reliably hold the ability of controlling more distant straits. This is visualized in the graphic below, where all chokepoints potentially controlled by Japan are depicted in pink. All other observed chokepoints are colored in grey. In terms of the soft power indicators, Japan’s score of top universities remains steady at a CS of 4.5, putting Japan into fifth place. Both in 2019 and in 2023, the nation called a total of 9 top universities its own. Their number fluctuated between 10 (2020, 2021) and 8 (2022). Regarding UNESCO World Heritage sites, Japan gaining an additional two sites for a total of 25, slightly rising from 10th place to sharing 9th rank with the United States.

In total, Japan shows the largest power decrease of all nations monitored. All economic indicators showed a loss of power for Japan, most significantly regarding its GDP, and its number of Fortune 500 companies. If this economic development continues, it could spell concern for Japan’s position in the global power struggle.

Read the country report as a PDF: BPSM 2024 Japan